Metal Price News - June 2024
In the absence of major news in the commodity market, the commodity prices have lost a bit of momentum. Maybe we have reached a stable level here in the run-up to the summer.
At the moment, the commodity prices follow global economic movements
Macroeconomic developments
USA
The signals from the US economy are once again mixed.
If we look at the labour market, 220,000 jobs have been created in May, significantly more than expected. This indicates a strong economy.
However, inflation seems to be finally slowing down, and this is usually the first indication that the economy is slowing down.
China
The Chinese economy continues to show signs of weakness. There have been rumours that the Chinese government will buy up empty houses to support a weak real estate market.
Both industrial production and the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) declined in May.
Europe
The elections for the European Parliament pushed Europe slightly further to the right.
The established parties took a hit in several countries, and in France the situation was so severe that President Macron called an election. The French economy has also come under pressure, and the French stock market fell by 2.8% on Friday. This affected the rest of the European stock markets, which also fell.
Overall, the European economy still seems fragile, causing volatility in financial and commodity markets.
Middle East
The conflict in Gaza continues. There have been peace talks between Hamas and Israel, but there is no breakthrough yet.
Copper
The copper price has been falling over the past month.
In mid-May, the copper price was just above 10,500 USD/t, but since then the price has slowed again. The price has dipped below 9,500 USD/t, only to rise again.
Aluminium
The price of aluminium has also fallen a few percent in the past month.
At the end of May, the price peaked above 2,700 USD/t, but now it is below 2,450 USD/t. The aluminium price has broken several resistance points and is highly volatile.
Stainless steel
The strike in Spain has now lasted for 4.5 months. This is longer than anyone imagined, and the ripple effects have long hit the market.
The prospects are good for a solution within the next few days - but we have heard that before.
Sheets/plates
Sheets/plates are rising slightly, and the lead time is 3 months. This is the effect of orders being moved from Acerinox in Spain to the other European mills.
With the Spanish mill temporarily out of action, the European supply is lower than usual. Wholesalers already had low stocks, because everyone has been in the process of reducing stocks after the large accumulation during the pandemic. As a consequence, demand is hitting a market where supply was already at a low level.
Bars
There is not much new on bars. Demand is low, but prices are rising due to the alloy surcharge.
Alloy surcharge
The nickel price jumped upwards in May and has come down a bit now. On the other hand, molybdenum is increasing. Overall, the alloy surcharge for July is increasing for 4404 (1.3%) and decreasing for 4301 (1.7%).